“You should go to college”. Those words became common during the college boom that started after WWII. As undergraduate enrollment doubled in the 1960’s due to legislation like the Higher Education Act of 1965, university became the universal path post high school. Fast forward to the 80’s and 90’s as the US shifted from manufacturing to a service economy, and knowledge work was clearly favored over blue-collar trades. But all of that is changing.

In the U.S., college enrollment peaked in 2010 at around 21 million students. Since that time, nationwide enrollment has dropped about 8.4% to closer to 19 million. And the percentage of high school students going straight to college has dropped from 70% to 62% over the same time period. But not all forms of post high school education are declining, as vocational training programs are on the rise.

The impact of AI

While demographics are definitely part of the reason for declining enrollment in higher education (the population of 18 year-olds is lower today), the biggest factor contributing to this societal shift is just getting started. The advent of AI is impacting norms and numbers in two ways.

First, AI is proving adept at automating more than just repetitive tasks, as agents are capable of planning, reasoning and acting autonomously across digital platforms. Fields previously perceived to be safe from replacement like law, software development and marketing are now at risk of having a significant amount of their work outsourced to AI. Does a four year degree still make sense when the half life of skills is less than two years?

Second, the enormous investment in AI infrastructure like the construction of data centers is being stalled due to a shortage of blue-collar tradespeople like electricians. This year alone the shortfall of construction workers is estimated to be as high as 440,000. Similar to the response during the pandemic when demand for nurses skyrocketed, companies are flying in electricians from all over the country and offering hefty bonuses and salaries. It is becoming more attractive to be a welder than a web designer. And it is admittedly ironic that the AI revolution is limited by labor.

The blue-collar renaissance

For decades, vocational training was frequently viewed as a lower tier occupation for individuals who couldn’t make it in academia and were therefore unsuited for knowledge work. The social stigma that accompanied these jobs made them less attractive and even spawned a popular tv show in the mid 2000’s called Dirty Jobs. The star of the program (Mike Rowe) eventually became a vocal advocate for the trades, promoting the dignity of manual labor and questioning why society would push young people to borrow money (that they are unable to pay back) to go to college to be trained for jobs that may not exist in the near future.

Today, Gen Z seems to be embracing the moniker of the “Toolbelt Generation”, as there is a notable shift to pursue pragmatism over prestige. Instead of prioritizing top universities, this generation has focused on practical ways to obtain financial independence while maintaining a heightened sense of work-life balance. Social media has played a part in this development, as a new DIY (do-it-yourself) culture is emerging that seems to glamorize what was previously considered lower class. The “millionaire plumber” narrative is growing, as median salaries for roles like elevator installers and power line technicians are frequently surpassing the earnings of college graduates.

The new collar workforce

In some respects, blue-collar and white-collar work are merging. Modern trades including HVAC and wind turbine technicians are increasingly high tech, using iPads, diagnostic software and complex machinery in addition to the physical exertions associated with the work. According to the National Skills Coalition, 92% of jobs require some form of digital literacy. This new combination of brain and brawn is blurring the lines of traditional work, while AI literacy is being added to the mix at a breakneck pace.

Fear of replacement by AI seems to be prevalent across the spectrum, with new technology being perceived as an equal opportunity disruptor. New grads in particular are worried about entry level roles disappearing, and Boomers are not immune to the impact of AI as there has been a rash of layoff announcements that frequently target higher paid employees. All of this begs the question: how should individuals and organizations adapt to the changing world of work?

The next 100 years

While trades could easily be confused with the new high-tech career path, the reality is more nuanced. Eventually those data centers will be built and operational, and demand for electricians will give way for the next hot commodity. It does not matter if you attend a college, a trade school or you jump directly into the workforce… skills become obsolete quickly in the age of AI. Thankfully, there are people who have thought through what we should do about all of this.

In her book The 100 Year Life, Lynda Gratton suggests that traditional one-off education is no longer sufficient in a world that changes so frequently and dramatically. Gratton says, “…maintaining productivity is no longer about brushing up on knowledge – it is about setting time aside to make fundamental investments in re-learning and re-skilling.” We’re already seeing this play out, as there has been an increase in adults returning to school for short-term certifications and “micro-credentials”. Regardless of what type of collar you wear, the need to embrace life-long learning has become a standard axiom.

The real story here isn’t the trades replacing knowledge work or that education is becoming irrelevant, it is the fact that the concept of stable employment and a fixed career path is not dissolving… it has already disappeared. The new world of work is defined less by the work we do and more by our ability to continuously evolve as the ground shifts beneath our feet. Resilience must be built through reinvention, and the most valuable skill will not be what you know today, but what you are willing to learn tomorrow.